Home > Uncategorized > What Happens if Mubarak steps down?

What Happens if Mubarak steps down?

To be perfectly honest, we don’t really know.  If Mubarak steps down, the only real option for the Egyptian people is for the Army to step in and regulate the country.  In a nation where service in the Army is compulsory, the military is regarded as the “Nation’s Pride” (author Alla el Aswany), and the military has a large influence in the economy (manufacturing in particular), the societal implications of the military playing an increased role in governance are huge, as well as extremely complex.

I linked an article in the Politico a few days ago written by my former teacher at UVa, Professor William Quandt.  In it, he argued that the Obama Administration needed to pressure the military to step up into a greater leadership role during the turmoil that Egypt has been dealing with over the past two-and-a-half weeks.  Whether the Obama Administration has been influential in this, I don’t know, but if the Egyptian military does begin to take more of a leadership role in the country, as it appears it must if Mubarak steps down, a few things about the relationship between the Egyptian military and the Egyptian Constitution must be considered.

A military takeover would be outside of the Egyptian Constitution and, I think, would effectively make that document immediately irrelevant.  Granted, one of the things that political opposition parties in Egypt have often pushed for is Constitutional reform, specifically of Articles 76, 77, and 88 which pertain to how the President is elected, Presidential term limits, and how elections are conducted, respectively.  However, not many of the traditional opposition parties that I know of have declared that they want an entirely new document.  I have, however, heard such demands from protesters in Tahrir.

This is yet another difference between the youth of this movement and the old-guard opposition parties that leaves serious confusion in its wake.  The real role of the military vs the desired role of the military, the relevance of the Egyptian Constitution should Mubarak step down and the military take more power, and the potential roles of the current Egyptian Vice-President and the new Parliament are all topics that are largely uncertain right now.

I’m going to follow this up shortly with more about the military, but for now, suffice it to say, if Mubarak steps down and the military steps up, we’re probably only witnessing the very beginning of this revolutionary story.

Categories: Uncategorized
  1. Katie Plofchan
    February 10, 2011 at 8:57 pm

    Very informative! Thanks.

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